As Senior Director of Account Management at Remodel Health, one of the most common questions I receive this time of year is, "What do the latest individual market rate filings mean for my organization?"
For 2027, preliminary filings indicate average increases in individual market premiums of approximately 15%, underscoring that rising healthcare costs remain one of the biggest challenges facing employers today.
While those numbers draw attention, they don't tell the full story. Looking beyond the headlines reveals important trends that every employer considering, or already offering, an individual coverage health reimbursement arrangement (ICHRA) should understand.
At first glance, another year of double-digit increases may sound concerning. More importantly, the latest filings point to a market that's adapting to changing conditions. Carriers are adapting to evolving market dynamics, while organizations are increasingly seeking benefit strategies that offer greater cost predictability.
For organizations evaluating ICHRA, the 2027 rate filings aren't just about premium increases. They offer valuable insight into the long-term health of the individual market and reinforce why flexibility, employee choice, and budget certainty continue to make ICHRA an increasingly attractive alternative to traditional group health plans.
To understand what these filings really mean for employers, it's important to look beyond the headline premium increase and examine the broader market trends shaping 2027.
While the projected 15% increase is higher than historical averages, it's lower than the average increases of more than 20% that many carriers implemented for the 2026 plan year. An unusual combination of healthcare cost inflation, increased utilization, specialty drug costs (particularly GLP-1s), Medicaid redeterminations, and the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits drove much of last year's pricing.
Those pressures required carriers to reset pricing, and early financial results suggest those adjustments are beginning to stabilize the market.
In my conversations with employers, the focus is rarely on one year's rate increase. Instead, they're asking whether today's market trends point to a stable, sustainable path forward. That's why these broader trends matter. They provide a clearer picture of what employers can expect in the years ahead.
Medical loss ratio (MLR) trends offer another encouraging signal. The ACA’s MLR requirement is that 80% of premiums are applied to direct medical care and quality improvement.
In 2025, many carriers reported medical loss ratios in the low 90% range, with KFF reporting an average of 93% for the individual market2. These high MLRs reflect unusually high claims costs. Preliminary 2026 trends show that corporate baseline margins have reset, suggesting MLRs are much closer to historical norms and to the 80% threshold that individual market insurers want to maintain.
While healthcare inflation and utilization remain ongoing challenges, many of the one-time market disruptions that influenced recent pricing have subsided. If these trends continue, premium increases could return closer to historical averages by 2028.
Another trend attracting attention is the number of carriers reducing their individual market footprint for 2027.
While some insurers are exiting certain states or leaving the market altogether, those carriers collectively represented less than 4% of the individual market in 2026 and less than 3% of enrolled employees within Remodel Health's ICHRA population.
At the same time, other insurers are expanding their investment in the individual market. Carriers, including Ambetter3, Anthem, UnitedHealthcare4, and Kaiser Permanente, are introducing additional off-exchange plan options specifically designed for the growing ICHRA market.
That continued investment reflects increasing confidence in individual coverage as more employers adopt defined-contribution health benefits.
National averages provide useful context, but employers make benefits decisions locally, where carrier competition, plan availability, and pricing vary significantly.
While national headlines focus on a projected 15% average increase, several states are projecting much lower rate changes, underscoring why employers should evaluate their local market rather than rely on national averages.
States with proposed increases lower than the national average
|
State |
Average proposed rate increase5 |
Notable carrier proposed rate increases |
Notes |
|
Minnesota |
6.91% |
Medica: 2.36% Blue Cross MN: 6.31% |
Minnesota has one of the lowest increases for 2027 and the third-lowest average plan cost in the country. |
|
Utah |
8.70% |
SelectHealth: 5.82% Regence BCBS: 5.90% |
This modest increase remains well below national averages. |
|
Iowa |
9.58% |
Wellmark BCBS: 4.98% Oscar: 7.94% |
Iowa boasts the sixth-lowest projected average cost for Silver plans nationally. |
|
California |
9.67% |
Inland Empire Health Plan: 5.62% Kaiser Permanente: 6.38% Sutter Health Plan: 3.01% |
Low rates are driven partly by new state tax subsidies introduced in 2026 to offset the expiration of enhanced federal subsidies6. |
|
Texas |
10.16% |
Ambetter: 1.30% BCBS: 8.93% Oscar: 9.56% |
Following a jump in 2025, Texas’s proposed increases for 2027 are well below the national average. |
|
Massachusetts |
11.63% |
Harvard Pilgrim: 5.9% Tufts Health Plan: 7.33% United Healthcare: 8.36% |
Massachusetts has the fourth-lowest projected average Silver plan cost for 2027. |
Many of these states also continue to rank among the most affordable individual markets in the country.
Meanwhile, states like Indiana and Ohio are projecting higher-than-average increases but remain competitive due to relatively low underlying plan costs.
States with proposed rate increases higher than the national average
|
State |
Average proposed rate increase5 |
Notable carrier proposed rate increases |
Notes |
|
Indiana |
18.01% |
Celtic Insurance Company (Ambetter): 15.34% Anthem: 15.60% |
While the state average increase is high, off-exchange plans are in line with the national average. Overall plan costs will remain the eighth-lowest in the country. Indiana also offers tax credits for small businesses adopting ICHRA. |
|
Ohio |
17.48% |
Ambetter: 11.15% Oscar: 10.84% |
While higher than average, Ohio still has the 11th-lowest projected individual plan costs. |
Note: The information in the tables reflects Remodel Health's analysis of 2027 individual health insurance rates. Rate information is based on available rate data from CMS Rate Review and state SERFF filings. Statewide averages reflect the average rate change across all plans, rating areas, carriers, and both on- and off-exchange products in each state.
These differences reinforce an important point. Employers shouldn't base benefits decisions on national averages alone. Understanding local carrier competition, plan availability, and pricing provides a much clearer picture of what employees will actually experience.
All rates presented here are based on preliminary rate filings. Final rates may change.
Premium increases aren't unique to the individual market. Employers sponsoring traditional group health plans and self-funded plans continue to face significant cost pressures as healthcare expenses rise across the industry. That's one reason ICHRA adoption continues to accelerate.
According to the HRA Council's 2026 Growth Trends6 report, ICHRA adoption continues to accelerate across employer segments. From 2025 to 2026, the number of applicable large employers (ALEs) offering ICHRA among the 17 data-reporting members increased 110%, from 1,267 to 2,663. Among small employers, ICHRA adoption grew 96%, increasing from 5,178 employers in 2025 to 10,164 in 2026. These numbers represent a confirmed and verifiable floor for the market, with actual ICHRA adoption likely much higher.
At Remodel Health, we're seeing that momentum firsthand. Our 2026 National ICHRA Report found a 455% increase in the number of large employers offering ICHRAs between 2024 and 2026. We're also seeing strong demand from employers evaluating the model, with a 65% year-to-date increase in our financial win pipeline.
As my colleague, Chief Revenue Officer Chris Reuter, explained in his recent article, employers are increasingly searching for health benefit strategies that balance rising costs with greater flexibility and employee choice. For many employers, ICHRA is becoming the answer.
While premium increases deserve attention, employers shouldn't view them in isolation. The individual market is continuing to mature, carrier performance is improving, and insurers are investing in products specifically designed to support the next phase of ICHRA growth.
From where I sit, the employers best positioned for 2027 won't be the ones reacting to this year's rate filings. They'll be the ones who use these insights to build a more sustainable benefits strategy that evolves with the market.